As 2 North Texas Counties See Home Prices Dip, What Does it Mean for DFW Housing Market?
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The D-FW housing market might be heading into correction territory, with an increase in new construction inventory driving steep declines in home prices in some North Texas counties.
Prospective homebuyers in North Texas have been weathering high prices for several years now amid an ongoing housing shortage. Now, economic certainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is leading some builders to consider hitting the pause button until price stability returns on the materials side of the equation.
It’s unclear how long that’s going to take, but the current short-term outlook for buyers looking for a new home is surprisingly rosy, at least in some parts of D-FW.
Discounted New Builds Flying Off the Shelves
A recent report by M&D Real Estate shows that market adjustments are being made heading into Q2. A lot of new builds are being delivered, and the economic situation is such that developers are feeling motivated to move product.
“With significantly more homes out there, these builders can’t raise prices, they’re having to lower them just to move their inventory,” said Danny Perez, managing director and founder of M&D Real Estate, speaking with CandysDirt.com.
Tariffs, however, are giving big producers pause. Perez said his firm is seeing a slowdown in permitting, suggesting a ramping down of new projects, at least until there’s more clarity on the trade war front.
North Texans looking to buy a new home in the next couple of months may do well to check out Rockwall County and Collin County, where median prices dropped last month year over year by 17% and 9%, respectively.
“Rockwall is a smaller market, so you’re going to have bigger moves up and down,” said Perez. “But Collin County, it’s probably the largest new construction market, and it was at 8.6% price decline in closed transactions in March.”
Both counties saw significant corresponding spikes in transaction activity, with Rockwall clocking 90% and Collin 44%. Perez said the resale market is likely to adjust as well since such sellers “can’t compete against new construction.”
He said he’s seen localized 10-20% downward swings before.
“Every single time that happens you’ll see transactions jump, anywhere from 40% to as high as 100% for the pending transactions into the next month when they draw down that inventory,” he said. “And then we’re just kind of in this cycle, prices probably begin to creep back up.”
Zooming out to the D-FW market as a whole, M&D Real Estate’s report clocked most counties at a 2-3% dip in prices, counting for both new builds and the resale market. Dallas proper saw a modest bump, putting the median price in March at $419,900, per Realtor.com.
Some Housing Deregulation Proving Very Popular
More housing stock could be on the way, with Texas lawmakers looking to encourage the building of more single-family homes by limiting municipal authority to regulate minimum lot sizes in new subdivisions. The thinking is that without these city-mandated lot sizes, developers would be able to build smaller, more affordable homes to offset the current housing crunch.
A YouGov poll commissioned by Texans for Housing shows considerable support for Senate Bill 15, also known as the “Texas Starter Homes Act.” Some 61% of Texans surveyed between March 11 and March 19 said they supported the proposed law, including 70% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans, according to a press release.
The Texas Senate passed SB 15 earlier this month, and a Texas House committee recently signed off on its own version of it last week. If YouGov’s polling is any indication, some version of the law will likely wind up on Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk this session.
When asked by CandysDirt.com what the impact of SB 15 would be on the market, Perez said, “I think that’d be huge for our lack of housing supply.” He noted, however, that it would take at least a couple of years for the consequent inventory to hit the market because of the land development deal cycle.
