What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate in 2026: NAR Report

From staff reports

The National Association of Realtors’ NAR NXT conference last week wasn’t just about MLS policies and agent ethics. Commercial real estate had its own moment. The Counselors of Real Estate — a global organization of property advisers and NAR affiliate — releases an annual look at the trends and risks shaping the year ahead. Earlier this week, global chair John Hentschel unveiled the group’s 2026 “Top 10 Issues” report. Here are the highlights:

1. Fiscal & Monetary Policy

Despite a record $37 trillion national debt and plenty of geopolitical noise, the broader economy continues to defy gravity. Jobs, spending, and even the stock market have held steady, the “Top 10 Issues” report states, but commercial real estate performance is uneven — especially for the for-sale housing sector and older office inventory.

Report takeaway: “Barring unforeseen events and policy changes, real estate will continue to be a key driver of growth and stability for the economy, in the year ahead.”

2. Portfolio Risk Rises to the Forefront

Risk management isn’t just a box to check anymore. Investors are using predictive analytics, climate-risk modeling, drone assessments, and smart-building data to evaluate everything from financing exposure to environmental vulnerability. The market is moving toward a world where “risk and resiliency” becomes its own specialty — and where better data shapes buy-sell-hold decisions.

Report takeaway: “Risk analysis is now driving key decisions on which projects to prioritize, informing buy-sell-hold strategies, refinancing and more. ‘Portfolio risk is something that has moved more to the forefront for investors, lenders, auditors and occupiers,’ Hentschel says. ‘Going forward, risk and resiliency expertise is likely to develop as a specific subset within commercial real estate.'”

3. Capital Remains Hard to Come By

Slower deal volume has made raising money tougher and returning money to investors even harder. Foreign capital is cautious, and real estate is now competing with booming opportunities in energy and digital infrastructure. Anyone seeking capital must be able to articulate liquidity, long-term stability, and a compelling investment case.

Report takeaway: ‘Investors and real estate professionals will continue to find the market for fundraising more challenging and competitive. They will need to work hard to find capital and should be prepared to discuss liquidity, long-term viability and why a property is a smart investment.’

4. Technology’s Transformation of CRE

AI is driving demand for data centers and reshaping underwriting, operations, and cybersecurity. But buildings still operate on fragmented systems that don’t talk to each other — the biggest barrier to fully leveraging AI. Owners who get control of their data inputs now are the ones who won’t be left behind.

Report takeaway: “To prepare for future AI solutions, property owners and operators need to get control of data inputs from multiple systems being gathered by a ‘fragmented ecosystem of investors, asset managers, property managers, contractors and building systems,’ the CRE report warns. ‘Companies and individuals will have to work harder to understand and innovate — or get left behind in this new fast-paced cycle of AI-driven innovation.'”

5. Housing Attainability Hits Crisis Levels

Across the country, shortages and rising costs are squeezing renters, first-time buyers, and seniors. The report points to places like Rhode Island, which needs 40,000 new units yet hasn’t built even 3,000 in a year for more than two decades.

Report takeaway: “No single solution exists. Incremental, creative and collaborative solutions across public and private sectors are essential to improve housing access and affordability. For example, land use and zoning policies and entitlement requirements could help make building faster and cheaper. ‘Everyone has a role to play, and it’s everyone’s responsibility to push or pull the lever at his or her disposal,’ the report says.”

See all 10 issues in “The Top 10 Issues to Watch in Commercial Real Estate in 2026” on NAR’s website.