Let’s Discuss: Are DFW Homes Overvalued?

Price reduced; price improved; new price; a gentler, kinder price; “priced to sell” (what home isn’t?); motivated seller, super motivated seller, uber motivated seller.

How about, “Seller will give you the house!”

It’s been quite a week, hasn’t it, starting with that surprise mini-tornado Sunday, and black-outs across Dallas since about 2 p.m. Sunday. 

If you were at an open-house Sunday when the storm hit, what did you do? I was at home and terrified. I had friends at Costco, where they pulled everyone inside and shut the metal doors, I had friends ON THE LAKE (holy high water), I had a husband on the Trinity River canoeing, 

I know many offices didn’t get power restored until Monday or even Tuesday. Our power in North Dallas, which was hit quite hard, came on Tuesday by noon but went out again the next night, several times. The Oncor guys are working up and down the street, some who came in from Illinois to help.

So we really don’t need any more bad news in Dallas, but I have been meaning to write this for awhile: how many ways can you say, “price reduced”?

Comes word from Fitch ratings that our market is overheated:

Home price growth in North Texas has slowed dramatically during the last year. But the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still on the list of major U.S. metro areas where housing values are significantly overvalued, according to the latest report from Fitch Ratings.

Fitch says that nationwide home prices grew 3%, but only grew 2.6% in D-FW first quarter 2019, compared with a year ago. Annual home price growth is at a crawl, slowest it’s been in seven years, says Fitch’s Grant Bailey. Who also thinks DFW homes were over-priced 10 to 14% in the first quarter.

Which is likely why we are seeing 1001 ways to say “price reduced” everywhere.

Lower interest rates might be a market gift, though: 

“Annual home price growth is now at the slowest rate in seven years, but the slowdown should plateau due to the recent drop in interest rates and the limited supply of new homes,” Fitch managing director Grant Bailey said in the report.

I don’t know why he is saying limited supply, there are 3.2% more homes on the market now in DFW:

A year ago, Fitch thought we were 19% over-valued. The company is NOT forecasting a decline in home prices, though, which is curious given these quotes:

“We concur that D-FW is overvalued, but what should be noted is the reason for overvaluation,” said Paige Shipp, who I adore, with housing analyst Metrostudy Inc. “Of course, we have had rapid price appreciation, but wage growth has lagged significantly.

“Wage growth has lagged significantly”. On one hand, I don’t like the sound of that. On the other, I don’t like inflation.

So are we to assume that if wage growth gets energized, more appreciation might follow? I am sending that email to Paige right now, stay tuned.

Looking at NTREIS states, we see that indeed the average price of a home in DFW has jumped to $275,000. Well, that’s a nice round number to remember.

We see that price per square foot is $131, and days on market is 20, compared to last spring 2018 when it was 14. That’s still pretty hot to me.

But here’s the kicker: median percent of original price: it’s 97.9%, pretty darn good, but it has come down in almost a perfect downward slant since 2016:

 

 

The market is telling us something, clearly. But look at new listings, heading upward by 3.2%:

And then look at closed sales, pretty darn close to the good market years past. 

That’s a pretty healthy market. But when it comes to luxury home sales of $2 million and above, things are definitely slowing. That’s the tough market right now, and I think it has to do with the new tax law changes. Everyone got a dose of fiscal reality in April when they did their taxes. If you cannot deduct a full $36,000 or more of property taxes on your income taxes, then why are you living in a house that ? This is the question many buyers are asking. 

Are you hearing this? Has Uncle Sam finally done what few could ever do? Force us into smaller, normal-sized homes? Discuss.