Apocryphally, Black Friday is the day when retailers finally turn a profit on the year (not the color of your mother’s bruises getting you a Cabbage Patch doll). Yes, the month between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the only profitable month and it’s so profitable it makes up for the losses of the remainder of the year.
Real estate is waiting for its own turn at profitability from the depth of the Recession. You may be cowed into thinking that all of that is behind us. Nope. You may think that Dallas has recovered. Nope.
ATTOM Data Solutions just published their findings on the state of the market for third quarter 2017 and the Metroplex results may surprise you. Let’s get my ZIP code out of the way first. As seen above, in tony Preston Hollow — bounded by Walnut Hill, Lovers, the Dallas North Tollway and Central Expressway — there are 702 properties listed as having over 25 percent more mortgage owed than property value (Loan to Value ratio or LTV). That’s 13 percent of the housing stock in the ZIP code. Oh, and it’s grown seven percent, or 46 homes, from a year ago.
In the area just north of Galleria and Valley View Midtown Dallas in ZIP 75254, it’s 491 properties or 20.5 percent of properties with over 125 percent LTV, up 5 percent from a year ago. East of Central Expressway in ZIP code 75206 — from Fitzhugh to Northwest Highway — 8.5 percent or 485 homes, unchanged from a year ago. In 75205, which includes parts of Park Cities from Fitzhugh to Lovers between the Dallas North Tollway and Central Expressway, it’s 799 homes or 16.2 percent of homes, growing at 8 percent this past year.
On the upside, the biggest gains have been made in Southern Dallas in ZIP codes 75216 and 75217, where the rates of seriously underwater homes dropped by 18 and 4 percent, respectively. Both still have between 8.6 and 7.4 percent of their homes in this category (1,197 homes combined), but they’re chunking through that more quickly than other area ZIP codes.
The biggest reason is what I’ve been pointing out in my Southern Dallas Buyer’s Guide series … it’s very close to downtown, decent light rail service, and really affordable. Couple that with minority areas still shaking off redlining, the outsized hit these areas took during the Recession, and a group of home buyers priced out of other areas, and you get an area poised for a renaissance. Fold in the coming 20-acre Smart District between the convention center and Farmer’s Market and ka-boom. Heck, Smart District might even get the city off its ass on Fair Park.
The outer burbs fared better than close-in neighborhoods of Dallas, but a surprising number are still growing their underwater homes rather than shrinking them.
Just when you thought Dallas was the wunder-city, data offers a jolt no coffee can.
Remember: High-rises, HOAs and renovation are my beat. But I also appreciate modern and historical architecture balanced against the YIMBY movement. If you’re interested in hosting a Candysdirt.com Staff Meeting event, I’m your guy. In 2016 and 2017, the National Association of Real Estate Editors has recognized my writing with two Bronze (2016, 2017) and two Silver (2016, 2017) awards. Have a story to tell or a marriage proposal to make? Shoot me an email firstname.lastname@example.org.