Seth Fowler: 2022 Predictions For Tarrant County Real Estate With a Money-Back Guarantee

Have you noticed all these “experts” write articles at the beginning of every year with the vaguest predictions that can’t help but be right — or at least in the neighborhood of right?

That’s not what we do when it comes to predictions. We are going to give exact and concise predictions that we guarantee will come true or else you’ll get your money back for your annual subscription. With a promise like that, how could we afford to be wrong?

Also, you can subscribe to CandysDirt.com’s daily newsletter here. Just sayin’.

What We Won’t Predict

Reviewing the past prediction articles from previous years, it seems that they pretty much same the same things from year to year. While it’s always good to be correct when making educated guesses, we certainly don’t want to be redundant or boring. Therefore, in 2022, Tarrant County Tuesday will not make any statements or predictions about the following:

• The population growth of the Greater Fort Worth (getting more purple by minute)
• The issues with the global supply chain (not going to improve anytime soon)
• Interest rates going up or down (does anyone really care?)
• Lack of existing home inventory (anyone? anyone? please?)
• Lack of new home inventory (ugh … hurry up developers/builders)
• Increasing rental rates (ick)
• Bow Ties (we know they’re cool)

All those things have been discussed and dissected over and over for the past five-plus years and there’s nothing more that needs to be said. Therefore, let’s make some new and fresh predictions for Tarrant County Tuesday for 2022 and beyond:

1. The Beyond-Burbs

Remember when Keller, Southlake, Burleson, and Aledo were the “outer reaches of Tarrant County?” You were really moving to the suburbs by going to Aledo (Parker County) and living in the country in Burleson (Johnson County) back in the day.

Those areas are now common locations for residents who work and play in the Greater Fort Worth area that they shouldn’t even be considered the ‘burbs. Haslet used to be this remote place and now it’s growing leaps and bounds. So it’s time for the Beyond-Burbs.

In 2022 and beyond, get used to Granbury, Alvarado, Brock, Grandview, Godley, Joshua, Azle, Argyle, and Springtown all being targets of developers, builders, and home buyers. Those areas used to be considered impossible places to live if you worked closer to central Fort Worth. With an active pandemic, remote working, and many people realizing they enjoy a little distance between neighbors, we will see more developers eye the Beyond-Burbs as the new areas gobble up land and start building homes.

2. The Shrinking City

It only makes sense if interest in the Beyond-Burbs increases that the inner city will begin to shrink. While we don’t see that making a major impact in 2022, it is a trend to keep an eye on.

Cities are delightful places to live, work, and play. There are definitely benefits to living in a city and that certainly has been evident in the last few decades as more condominiums have been built, downtown areas have been revitalized, and forgotten neighborhoods have been revived by flippers and fixer-uppers.

Those areas might not shrink in population but they certainly will shrink in homeowners. As we see apartments sprout up on every corner, trying to resonate with young professionals and empty-nesters who don’t want yard work or long drives to good restaurants, condos and ownership opportunities will become less and less.

Areas that once were affordable to buy, fix-up, or flip and live have now become hip and trendy and out of the price range for many.

Apartments and their record-setting lease rates will thrive but homeownership opportunities will continue to shrink in 2022.

3. Taxes, Taxes, Taxes

We probably should’ve put this under the category that we weren’t going to make any statements or predictions about, but since we’re talking about growth, we might as well talk about taxes. They’re not going down and they’re not going away. Yes, you can protest your property taxes when you get your estimated bill in March 2022 — and you certainly should — but always ask yourself “Would I sell my property today for the price the appraisal district is using as value?” If your answer is “yes” then pick up the phone and call me and I’ll sell it for you in seconds. If the answer is “no,” then stop complaining.

Yes increasing taxes and rates (although our politicians will tell you the rates are going down only to increase the valuations) stink and yes it causes gentrification and the homogenization of neighborhoods and it forces people who have lived in the same home for decades to have to sell because their annual taxes are more than what they paid for the home originally … but there’s nothing that can be done or will be done.

So pay your taxes.

4. Change Is Slow

People are always asking, “What’s the next thing in home building or sales?” and the answer I give is always, “well, depends on what the masses and government will accept.”

Yes, it would be awesome if the tiny house movement could create neighborhoods within cities and close to public transit, but municipalities are so stuck in their ways and afraid of anything new that it likely won’t happen. Politicians love to throw out the term “affordable housing” but they don’t care and don’t have a clue how to make that happen. They just want to get re-elected.

Recently our own Tommy Cummings wrote about a company aspiring to bring 3D printed homes to D/FW. It’s a cool idea, but don’t plan on seeing concrete houses and neighborhoods populating the Metroplex anytime soon. Yes, yes there will be one or two small communities willing to dip their toes into something like that and will allow 3-D printed homes, but not only is this America, this is Texas, and as Texans, we don’t want every home looking the same and we certainly don’t want to be told we can’t make modifications to our computer-generated concrete home.

It’s an interesting concept, but builders scoff at this and simply pat 3D printing people on their heads and tell them to “go home and get their shine box.”

Yes, we need change. The supply chain issue is crippling new home construction and that’s not going to change in 2022. Even once the ships get unloaded and trains bring materials to the Lone Star State to build homes once again, the prices are going to be so high (and will continue to be high) that an entire segment of the home-buying population will be completely left out of the equation.

Yes, we need change, but don’t expect 2022 to be the year of much change.

Remember: If these predictions don’t come true, there’s a money-back guarantee on your newsletter subscription!