Latest California-to-Texas Migration Numbers Reveal Surprise, Plus Other Reports

The projection of Californians migrating en masse to Texas for job opportunities and lower taxes in 2020 wasn’t quite as drastic as first believed, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

In 2018, a Texas Realtors Association report showing Californians were migrating to Texas at a more than 2-to-1 rate showed no reason to think it was slowing down. In North Texas, it was expected that the Plano-Frisco-Little Elm area would be the next San Jose, Calif.

But according to new U.S. Census Bureau national data, household movement changed amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Many analysts expected a large interstate migration last year, such as from California to Texas or from New York to Florida, but that doesn’t appear to be the case,” said Joshua Roberson, Texas Real Estate Research Center senior data analyst.

Actually, the number of owner-occupied households moving increased, which was reflected in record home sales. On the other hand, renter-occupied household moves were on the decline, a steep drop.

“The biggest influence in this decline was the large drop off in movement from renter-occupied households,” Robertson said.

Make no mistake, Californians are headed this way. But instead of being from California and other states, Census data shows more people moved from one county to another within Texas.

Net migration into principal cities was already in decline before the pandemic, but the number took an even bigger dip in 2020. Net growth showed in the surrounding, less-dense cities within the same metro.

In another segment of the same data, the analysts’ Texas/California comparison was more telling. Texas added the most residents of any state in 2020 with California having the largest drop.

From July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020, Texas gained an estimated 373,965 residents — about the size of Arlington. That total includes migration and births. California lost 69,532 residents — about the size of Rowlett.

And a study that’s even more telling of the Texas/California migration from the people who know about migration: U-Haul ranks Texas No. 2 on its annual list of hottest states for where people are moving. California ranked 50th, and it’s been ranked 48th or lower since 2016. Texas has been a top-two growth state for the past five years.

Other Notable Reports

• 2021 Texas Housing & Economic Outlook: The 2021 housing market will be characterized by strong demand with low inventories accompanied by solid price growth, according to Texas Real Estate Research Center economists. Inventories of homes priced below $300K will be low, affecting sales. Price growth will be positive because of stable demand. Learn more here.

• Zumper National Rent Index: Dallas ranked 35th on the nation’s most expensive city to rent, according to Zumper’s National Rent Index. The price of one-bedroom units fell 3.2 percent to $1,210 last month while two bedrooms dropped 2.4 percent to $1,640. Overall, the national 1BR median rent remained flat at $1,224 while the 2BRs increased to 0.3 percent to 1,491. The report covers 100 cities nationwide, with data aggregated from over 1 million active listings. Learn more here.