Search Analysis Shows More Renters Checking Out Dallas During Pandemic, Plus Other Reports

Dallas might be regarded as a temporary safe haven for renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s the easy conclusion from Apartment List’s quarterly renter migration report, but the data suggests other reasons.

In its fourth-quarter report, Apartment List crunched its search numbers and determined that 23.5 percent of people looking for a place to live in Dallas are searching from outside the metro area, an increase from last year’s 21.7 percent. The most common source of apartment hunters looking to move to Dallas from elsewhere is Houston, which make up 7.7 percent of inbound searches for Dallas.

Going the other direction: 15.7 percent of apartment dwellers living in Dallas are looking to move elsewhere, compared to 14.5 percent last year. Ten percent of those have their eyes on Austin.

Among renters looking to move to Dallas from elsewhere, 15.9 percent are searching for leases of six or fewer months. Of those renters, 16.6 percent wanting to move away from Dallas want a short-term lease.

It all brings up the question: Why?

Well, data can be telling. On the outbound side, the spike in searches for short-term leases is concentrated among expensive coastal metros (Honolulu leads with 26.8 percent of searches), while on the inbound side, the biggest spikes are happening in mid-sized tourist destinations. Also, the ability to work from home in an area with no state income tax is worth considering. Many workplaces have indicated they’ll keep offices closed well into 2021, according to the report.

“Taken together, this paints a picture of renters taking advantage of the geographic flexibility provided by remote work in order to test out life someplace new,” Apartment List research associate Rob Salviati wrote in his report. “But given the recent volatility in labor and housing markets, as well as the uncertainty around what life will look like post-pandemic, the renters moving now are less willing to make a long-term commitment.

“This evidence suggests that although the pandemic is impacting housing choice, the permanence of that impact is far from certain.”

Apartment List analyzed proprietary data from millions of user searches from July through November to determine where Americans are looking to make their next move.

Dallas is an Attractive Rental Market

According to another Apartment List study released last week, rents in Dallas decreased 0.3 percent month month-over-month and are down 2.8 percent since March, regarded as the start of the pandemic.

Dallas is also affordable in comparison to other markets. Dallas ranked as the 32nd most-expensive city to rent, according to Zumper’s National Rent Report for December. The price of a one-bedroom grew 1.6 percent to $1,250 last month while a two-bedroom increased 1.8 percent to $1,680.

Year-over-year, Dallas increased 1BR rentals by 5 percent. Plano is 42nd with its one-bedroom units renting for $1,140 a month, a 3.4 percent decline. Fort Worth, the 52nd most-expensive city to rent, saw its 1BRs rent for $1,060, a 2.9 percent increase. Irving is 60th with one-bedrooms renting for $1,010, a decrease of 8.2 percent from a year ago. Arlington is 73rd with one-bedroom rents at $900, a 3.4 percent increase.

San Francisco one-bedrooms go for $2,700 a month, even though that’s a 22.6 percent decrease from a year ago. New York 1BRs are $2,470, down 16.8 percent from last year.

Other Notable Reports

• Move.org: Plano comes in at 15th in Move.org’s analysis of cities with the lowest living costs in 2020. To determine the rankings, Move.org analyzed the 75 most populous cities according to the U.S. Census Bureau using data from Numbeo.com, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and the U.S. Department of Transportation. El Paso ranked first and Corpus Christi seventh. Move.org also determined the average monthly cost of living. Dallas ranked 37th at $2,070.61, Fort Worth 48th at $1,869.61, and Plano 61st ($1,756.13). Read more here.

• Texas Quarterly Apartment Report: Nine percent of apartment-dwellers in the Dallas-Fort Worth market showed no confidence in their ability to make next month’s payment for renter-occupied housing units, according to the U.S. Census’ Household Pulse Survey. In comparison, the Texas percentage of no confidence was 11 percent. Another sobering stat: 13 percent of D-FW residents report that their 13 percent likely of leaving their homes because of eviction in the next two months. On the upside: 43 percent of residents reported they were not likely at all to leave, almost twice the rate in the Houston market (43 percent) and better than the U.S. (22 percent) and Texas (18 percent) rates. Read more here.

• SmartAsset: Fort Worth ranks 13th among U.S. cities where the average household can afford the most home, according to a SmartAsset study. Fort Worth has a median household income of $65,356, which affords a $257,000 home with a median value of $209,400. Arlington ranked 20th and Dallas 30th. Read more here.

• Zillow: About 20 percent of Dallas-Fort Worth homes sold in September went for more than $10,000 above their asking prices, according to a new Zillow report. In Texas, Austin had the largest share of homes going for more than the list price with 27.4 percent. Read more here.

• HomesUSA.com: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices and days on market averages increased in October, according to Dallas-based HomesUSA.com. Average new-home prices increased from $369,416 in September to $370,546. Average days on market fell from 95.2 days in September to 93.8 days. New home sales totaled 1,551 compared to 1,530 in September. Active listing declined from 6,945 in September to 6,792, reflecting inventory demands.

• Dodge Data & Analytics: Dallas-Fort Worth’s total construction starts topped $17.9 billion since Jan. 1, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. The total represents a $100 million gain from the same period in 2019. Read more here.

• AEI Housing Center: Dallas ranks 19th on the American Enterprise Institute Housing Center’s list of best metro areas for first-time homebuyers in 2019. AEI ranked the 50 largest metros using the home prices-to-income ratio for each first-time homebuyer. Houston was ranked 10th and Austin 25th. Pittsburgh, Pa., was ranked first. Read more here.
• CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Dallas-area home prices were up 4.9 percent, growing at the fastest rate in more than three years in the latest Standard & Poor’s CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Nationally, prices were 7 percent higher in September 2019, the largest increase since 2014. Read more here.
• Texas Manufactured Housing Association: Single-family manufactured home shipments were down 5 percent from September, according to the Texas Manufactured Housing Association’s monthly market analysis. Read more here.