S&P/Case-Shiller’s .01% Decline For Dallas Real Estate Values Might Make You Over-Imbibe on New Years Eve. It Shouldn’t

Our glorious fourth quarter of 2011 showed more national declines in home prices.

Data through October 2011 showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month, even San Francisco!

Grrrrreat.

“There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by 1.0% or more during the month.

Guess who did not: Dallas. Our home prices are down a mere .01 percent over September, 2010, seasonally adjusted.

Prices increased in 4 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in October, seasonally adjusted (which means taking into account/balancing higher volume buying seasons). Those cities would be Washington D.C., Charlotte, Atlanta and Denver. Prices in Las Vegas are –ouch —  off 61.3% from the boom peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.8% from the peak, a.k.a.good old days.

Here’s the bad news: even using the seasonally-adjusted data, the Case-Shiller indexes are now at new post-bubble lows! And it could go lower.

Here’s the good news: if you are reading this, you probably own or are about to own property in Texas. Could it go lower here? Maybe. Not too much, just looking at how well our values have held up for the last three years.

Then take a look at this. Guess who’s been having a real estate boom right under our noses: why, Austin and San Antonio!

Austin, says the Business Insider, has gotten to be way expensive, especially for all the young musicians moving there. But despite the high cost of living, more than 170 new people still move to Austin every day. Consequently, Austin has become the most expensive city in Texas to buy or rent a home in. And, as I may have told you this summer, luxury real estate is booming in San Antonio.

Thanks to wealthy Mexicans and Eagle Ford Shale millionaires helping drive, the market for luxury real estate in San Antonio is outperforming the nation’s housing market. Like a blast from the past, you can still find million-dollar spec homes in the Alamo City. While median home prices across San Antonio are up about 2 percent for the whole year, prices are up 3.3 percent in the $750,000-and-up category.