Three Things to Know to Prepare For The Strangest Housing Recession in History

By Ryan Casey Stephens,  FPQP®
Special Contributor

Wouldn’t a dull year with very few unusual events be a welcome thing? Well, hardly a month into 2023 a strange and mysterious landscape is stretched out before us. The technology and tools available today provide as much risk to confuse us as they present opportunities for our benefit. It also seems the metrics and measures we depend on often surprise us. Let’s survey some of the stranger points in this week’s Three Things to Know.

I, Realtor

AI-powered Chat GPT is rapidly changing the world. This super-intelligent tool has passed law exams, medical license exams, and business school entrance tests. It’s hyper-intelligent software that can converse or write on any topic you can imagine. Based on a subscription model, users can chat with the AI and ask it nearly any question or request that it perform tasks like researching or writing. 

The endless potential is affecting our industry as well — this weekend CNN reported agents are using the service to write listing descriptions, draft amendments, and estimate mortgage payments for clients. Chat GPT taps into its enormous knowledge base to give a nearly finished product in less than five seconds. After spending one or two minutes personalizing the result provided, you’re ready to publish.

Services like Redfin and Opendoor once claimed they were working towards a world without typical agents and commissions, but ultimately failed. Now that the average person has access to a tool that can write listing descriptions, craft contracts, and may soon scan for comps, are Realtors now facing their greatest threat or being introduced to their most useful tool? 

First Thing to Know:

Chat GPT is the latest in a long line of technologies that have changed the world. Agents need to become familiar with the ways it can be used in our industry or they risk becoming a victim to progress.

Another Unprecedented Week

Since aggressive rate hikes began in 2021, Fed meeting weeks have been a big deal. This Wednesday we expect a .25 percent hike, but Powell’s press conference following the rate announcement has the potential to move markets. If the tone indicates the near end of hikes, mortgage rates could respond by easing and heading lower.

Just as important, however, is a series of events colliding for the first time in a single business week. Between Tuesday and Friday, we’ll get Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing data, fresh Jobs, and unemployment numbers, as well as earnings from 75 of the S&P 500 companies, including tech giant Apple. It will be a wild west week, and fitting as the Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo winds to a close.

Second Thing to Know:

The Fed’s two-day meeting is the most meaningful event of the week, but other reports have the potential to cause volatility. Clients not locked in need to collaborate with their lenders, who need to pay special attention in the days ahead.

Stubborn American Housing

We are living in one of the strangest housing recessions in history. Existing Home Sales became one of the earliest metrics to contract in the fall, and even the most successful local industry professionals have felt the decline in transaction volume. 

The odd part is that several nationwide measures refuse to budge. Thanks in part to rates falling from 7.4 to 6.1 percent, mortgage demand is up 28 percent since November. The aforementioned decline in home sales just posted its smallest decline in three months as well. Perhaps most interesting – 21 percent of homes nationwide continue to sell over list price. 

Third Thing to Know:

While it’s still possible to see housing worsen in the months ahead, it’s beginning to appear that optimists may prevail — we may be about to begin a year of recovery.

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Ryan Casey Stephens FPQP® is a mortgage banker with Watermark Capital. You can reach him at [email protected].