Report: Housing Markets in California, New Jersey, and Illinois Have Elevated Risk of Downturns in Second Quarter of 2024
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There’s good news and bad news. The good news is Dallas isn’t mentioned in the latest Special Housing Risk Report from ATTOM Data Solutions.
The bad news is there’s still a nationwide housing crisis.
In a report released Thursday, ATTOM found that California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again had the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with some of the biggest clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas and inland California. Less-vulnerable markets remained spread mainly throughout the South, along with parts of the Midwest.
“The second-quarter patterns — derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment — revealed that nearly half of the counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential drop-offs were in California, New Jersey, and Illinois,” according to the report. “As with earlier periods over the past few years, those concentrations dominated the list of areas more at risk of downturns.”
Read the full ATTOM report.
So, Dallas, we good?
Does the ATTOM report mean that the Dallas housing market is in great shape? Not at all. It’s just not considered one of the highest-risk markets in the country.
The housing market boom continues to gain momentum, thanks to another springtime boost, said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM.
“However, some markets show signs of potential instability, which suggests a mixed level of risk, particularly in certain regions that repeatedly show signs of concern,” Barber said. “While these observations don’t indicate immediate red flags or warning signs of an impending downturn, they do highlight areas of relative risk. With the housing market still facing challenges, it’s crucial to closely monitor regions where key indicators suggest a higher likelihood of issues.”
Significant gaps in risk continued in different parts of the U.S. during the second quarter of 2024 as key housing market metrics have gotten either better or worse this year, the ATTOM report states. Those measures included home prices, equity, and affordability.
The median listing home price in Dallas, was $449,000 in July 2024, trending down about 10% year-over-year, according to Realtor.com. The median listing home price per square foot was $261. The median home sold price was $378,800.
Realtor.com says New York City’s median home price is $799,000 and Chicago’s is $375,000.
So how is Dallas really doing on equity and affordability? They’re trying.
The Dallas City Council is expected to vote later this month on the largest property tax decrease in recent history. Initiatives are underway to improve affordability and equity, such as targeting historically underserved communities for infrastructure investments.
The ForwardDallas comprehensive land use plan, which hasn’t been updated since it was originally drafted almost 20 years ago, could also go a long way toward providing more housing options and cleaning up old land use patterns that allowed for industrial uses to be built near single-family neighborhoods, particularly in black and brown neighborhoods.
A compromise was reached on the plan last week and it’s slated for a public hearing before the City Council on Sept. 25.
