Unless you’ve been on a “cut the cord” vacation, you’ve seen last week’s headlines warning that an inversion in the bond market has folks worried we’ll be entering a recession soon. About a third of economists think we’re likely on that road. Remembering the Great Recession, should we shun the real estate market?

No.

As the New York Times points out, the last two big recessions occurred because something was in a bubble. In the early 2000s, it was the tech bubble and resulting crash made worse by September 11. The Great Recession began in the housing market that exposed shady lending and rippled into the global financial crisis.

At the moment there is no similar bubble out there. There are trade wars and tariffs. There are diplomacy stand-offs and a global rise in nationalism and populism that are fraying the stability of historic global ties. These governmental policy issues largely affect the business world and cause uncertainty which leads to conservative spending. Consumer spending is still chugging along fine.

But let’s say that business decides to pullback in a real way which starts the domino effect of lost jobs, lower wages that then do impact consumer spending (two-thirds of spending). Then we may see real estate prices impacted.

But again, learn from history.

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dallas housing market

The Dallas market continues to sizzle, with the median price for single-family homes increasing by about 8 percent in May compared to last year.

To paint a bigger picture, prices in North Texas have increased by about 40 percent since the 2009 economic recession, according to a new report from the Dallas Builders Association (DBA) and Meyers Research for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Earlier this year, Dallas overtook Houston as the leading new home market in the country, and it still keeps that spot. Overall, housing inventory was at a 2.3 months’ supply with certain areas, like Collin County, with even less.

The report says about 29,000 new homes are expected in the North Texas region by the end of 2016. This is due in part to one of the strongest employment markets in the country. But prices are still going up, with labor shortages and more regulation increasing prices as builders still struggle to keep up with demand.

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