dallas housing prices

Could rising housing prices in Dallas-Fort Worth indicate another bubble?

There’s no doubt that Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the hottest real estate markets in the U.S.

dallas housing prices

Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. Photo: Zillow

Zillow recently named it No. 3 in the country, noting a 4 percent unemployment rate and solid income growth. Additionally, the Zillow Home Value Forecast predicts the Dallas-Fort Worth median home value will go up by 5.6 percent in 2016.

But some housing analysts and mortgage insurance companies fret over the 6 percent increase in North Texas home prices over the past six years. They wonder, could this be another bubble?

Probably not, according to Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.

“Dallas looks pretty good compared to so many other parts of the country,” Terrazas told the Dallas Morning News‘ Steve Brown. “We don’t have anything artificial right now inflating the housing market—the lending standards remain fairly tight.”

(more…)

Photo courtesy of Ray Bodden

Photo courtesy of Ray Bodden through a Creative Commons license

Texas is the place to be for economic prosperity and job growth, which in turn has made our real estate market one of the best in the nation, according to the 2014 Texas Annual Housing Report, released this week by the Texas Association of Realtors.

Nearly every area of real estate in the Lone Star State continues to get bigger and better, some of it astoundingly so, the report shows. Most notably, growth has happened in luxury home sales, international home buying, relocation activity, condominium sales, and remodeling trends.

“It’s a great time to live in Texas. The high demand for Texas real estate is not being fueled by speculation and investment activity—it’s driven by the thousands of people who move to the Lone Star State daily,” said Dan Hatfield, chairman of the Texas Association of Realtors. “People are moving to Texas from across America and around the world to take part in our state’s booming economy, business-friendly environment, and quality of life.” (more…)

CoreLogic Inc. says home prices in the Dallas area rose by 4.5 percent in October, up from  a year earlier. Nationwide, some areas saw a 6.3 percent increase when looking back at October 2011. Pulling out those distressed home sales, which CoreLogic does so well and why I like this index better than Case-Shiller, we were up a whopping 7.2 percent. Woo hoo!

Only 20% (actually, less than 20%) of our homes are in distress mode, most of those being in the way outer limits of town. Of course Phoenix did the best in the country, with home prices shooting up 24.5% because homes have been so cheap in Phoenix they were almost giving them away.

I’ll take our slow and steady over the dramatic ups and downs any day. Real estate values are like weight loss and gain: too much up and down just wreaks havoc on your bod.

Here’s the release:

 

CoreLogic® Home Price Index Marks Eighth Consecutive Month of Year-Over-Year Gains
6.3 Percent Increase Recorded in October, Pending HPI Forecasts 7.1 Percent Increase for November

IRVINE, Calif., December 4, 2012 – CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its October CoreLogic HPI® report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012*. Decreases in month-over-month home prices are expected as the housing market enters the offseason. The HPI analysis from CoreLogic shows that all but five states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide also increased on a year-over-year basis by 5.8 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012, the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from October 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter. Excluding distressed sales, November 2012 house prices are poised to rise 7.4 percent year-over-year from November 2011 and by 0.5 percent month-over-month from October 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“The housing recovery that started earlier in 2012 continues to gain momentum,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The recovery is geographically broad-based with almost all markets experiencing some appreciation. Sand and energy states continue to experience the most robust appreciation and some judicial foreclosure states are even recording increasing prices.”

“We are seeing an ongoing strengthening of the residential housing market,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Reduced inventories and improving buyer demand are contributing to stability and growth in home prices, which is essential to the long term health of the housing market and the broader economy.”

Highlights as of October 2012:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+21.3 percent), Hawaii (+13.2 percent), Idaho (+12.4 percent), Nevada (+12.4 percent) and North Dakota (+10.4 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Illinois (-2.7 percent), Delaware (-2.7 percent), Rhode Island (-0.6 percent), New Jersey (-0.6 percent) and Alabama (-0.3 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+16.6 percent), Hawaii (+12.2 percent), Nevada (+10.8 percent), Idaho (+9.7 percent) and California (+9.7 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2012) was -26.9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -20.6 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-53.5 percent), Florida (-44.5 percent), Arizona (-40.2 percent), California (-36.6 percent) and Michigan (-35.3 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 17 are showing year-over-year declines in October, four fewer than in September.

*September data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

October HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Sorted by Single Family Including Distressed):

CBSA October 2012 12-Month HPI
Change by CBSA
Single-Family Including Distressed Single-Family Excluding Distressed
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 24.5% 20.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 7.3% 8.2%
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 6.6% 5.2%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 6.4% 6.9%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 4.5% 7.2%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4.5% 4.5%
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4.2% 4.1%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 2.7% 5.2%
Philadelphia, PA -0.4% 0.8%
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL -2.3% 1.5%

Source: CoreLogic.

October National and State HPI (Sorted by Single Family Including Distressed):

State October 2012 12-Month HPI
Change by State
Single-Family Including Distressed Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed
National 6.3% 5.8%
Arizona 21.3% 16.6%
Hawaii 13.2% 12.5%
Nevada 12.4% 10.8%
Idaho 12.4% 9.7%
North Dakota 10.4% 9.6%
Utah 9.2% 7.7%
California 9.0% 9.7%
Michigan 7.8% 5.9%
Colorado 7.3% 6.1%
Florida 7.3% 6.0%
South Carolina 7.1% 6.1%
Wyoming 7.0% 4.7%
Louisiana 6.5% 7.9%
Washington 6.2% 6.3%
District of Columbia 6.0% 5.7%
Mississippi 5.7% 5.7%
Oregon 5.6% 5.7%
South Dakota 5.5% 6.1%
Texas 5.5% 5.5%
New York 5.4% 5.3%
Minnesota 5.2% 5.9%
West Virginia 4.8% 2.1%
Montana 4.6% 2.7%
New Hampshire 4.4% 5.8%
Virginia 4.4% 4.3%
Indiana 4.1% 3.3%
Kansas 4.0% 5.6%
Maryland 3.8% 3.7%
Nebraska 3.8% 3.2%
Alaska 3.7% 3.8%
Massachusetts 3.6% 4.7%
New Mexico 3.1% 4.1%
Maine 2.3% 2.9%
Georgia 2.2% 4.8%
Vermont 2.2% 2.5%
Wisconsin 1.8% 2.0%
North Carolina 1.8% 1.8%
Tennessee 1.7% 3.1%
Ohio 1.4% 1.0%
Missouri 1.3% 2.2%
Arkansas 1.2% 1.2%
Iowa 1.0% 0.6%
Pennsylvania 0.7% 1.4%
Kentucky 0.6% 3.3%
Oklahoma 0.6% 0.2%
Connecticut 0.6% 0.2%
Alabama -0.3% -1.5%
Rhode Island -0.6% 0.7%
New Jersey -0.6% -0.2%
Illinois -2.7% 0.8%
Delaware -2.7% -2.1%

Source: CoreLogic.

ChartTable 1

Table 2

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,790 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 624 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,192 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or web site. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading residential property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. Our combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources spans over 700 million records across 40 years including detailed property records, consumer credit, tenancy, hazard risk and location information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. We deliver value to our clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Our clients rely on us to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.