casechart 4.2016The venerable Case-Shiller report that tracks pre-owned home sales, not new builders homes or subdivisions, puts Dallas near the top of the list of cities with the biggest home price gains. Which is, of course, impressive.

Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index says Dallas-area home prices were up 9 percent from February of 2015.

Dallas ranked fourth, behind Portland, Seattle and Denver as the the cities with the largest year-over-year price gains in the closely watched Wall Street housing metric report.

Nationwide, Dallas home prices were 5.3 percent higher than a year ago.

But February numbers slipped slightly from 9.2 percent in January.

“Home prices continue to rise twice as fast as inflation, but the pace is easing off in the most recent numbers,” S&P’s David M. Blitzer said in the report. “Rising prices are a concern in many parts of the country.

“The visible supply of homes on the market is low at 4.8 months in the last report,” he said. “Homeowners looking to sell their house and trade up to a larger house or a more desirable location are concerned with finding that new house.”

Home prices were higher in all 20 major markets included in Case-Shiller’s survey.

The largest gains were found in Portland (11.9 percent), Seattle (11 percent) and Denver (9.7 percent).

In fourth place, Dallas-area home prices are now at record levels, almost 24 percent higher than before the recession and housing market crash of 2009. (more…)

Home For Sale Sign Dallas

Maybe so, or maybe the market is just taking a breather while the summer heat is on before it grows legs again. According to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index, Dallas has seen the smallest increase in home prices since August of last year. Still, prices are growing, at an albeit slower rate. In fact, all of the MSAs Case-Shiller surveys saw growth from April to May of this year, even beleaguered Detroit.

Regionally, home prices increased 8.6 percent in Dallas from May 2013 to May 2014, and between April and May of this year, the increase was 1.3 percent. That’s a decrease from March to April 2014, during which Dallas saw a 1.6 percent price growth. Nationally, housing prices are up 9.4 percent from May 2013, with a flat month-over-month HPI.

(more…)

Sold and For Sale SignsI guess you can thank no income taxes and pot. Because Dallas and Denver are on a high! I really, really wish I could be a fly on the wall in Robert Shiller’s office someday. I say this because when I heard him speak as the huge national recession was setting in, this was about 2010, I had the chills. I had the chills because I truly thought housing was over as we know it. I thought my kids and grandkids would be doomed to leasing. He spread so much doom and gloom in my soul I may be permanently scarred.  Bob Shiller was not so bullish on housing back then.

But now the company that bears his name reports that Dallas-area home prices are up 10 percent from a year ago. They have hit a new record high in the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Our homes — single family homes, resales not new construction — are up 10 percent in March from last year. Prices are even up 1.2 percent from February. And March was the fourth month in a row that Dallas home prices increased at a double-digit rate from the previous year. (more…)

After 22 months of growth, are Dallas home prices about to hit a plateau? Could be.

The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index showed a 10.2 percent year-over-year increase in Dallas home prices according to their most recent 20-city composite report. Dallas now ranks with 13 of the top 20 cities measured by Case-Shiller’s HPI with double digits. Nationally, the home price index is up 13.4 percent year-over-year.

But are we about to peak? Perhaps, as analysts with S&P say home price increases are slowing quite a bit. That break in momentum could be good news for buyers who are having a rough time find a home in Dallas with tight inventory and bidding wars around every corner. Case-Shiller’s HPI showed Dallas prices up only 0.2 percent from November to December, and a 0.1 percent increase from October to November.

“Only six cities – Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington – posted gains for the month of December,” the report stated. “Miami held its leadership position with an increase of 0.9% followed by Las Vegas at +0.4%. Atlanta, Detroit and Los Angeles remained relatively unchanged – Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 level.”

According to Steve Brown’s DMN story, S&P’s David Blitzer thinks the rebound period of the housing recovery may be behind us:

“Gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over,” said S&P’s David Blitzer. “Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing.

“Existing home sales fell 5.1 percent in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year,” Blitzer said. “Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations.”

Still, Blitzer points out that the Case-Shiller index in 2013 had it’s largest gain since 2005.

And Dallas-area home prices have been up from the previous year for 22 straight months. Local home prices are up by more than 5 percent from where they were before the recession, according to Case-Shiller.

We’ll have to see what happens as the spring selling season hits, but steady prices and an uptick in inventory would be good news overall.

What’s your perspective? Will we see home prices continue to increase, or are we about to hit a plateau?

New Home ConstructionRocky Mountain High takes on a whole new meaning as Dallas and Denver continue to lead the nation as the most vibrant real estate markets, according to the venerable Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Index that came out Tuesday. .

Here, too, is why more real estate investors are swooping in to Dallas to buy up properties: our home values are up, so much, in fact, that we have now surpassed the heights we attained at the peak of the bubble back in 2006. That’s right: our real estate values have climbed higher than we thought they could.

Dallas area home prices rose by an unprecedented 9 percent in one year. That was for August sales, of course; there is a month and a half delay in gathering and reporting all those sales, then deciphering the stats. And remember Case Shiller does not include new home sales so 9% could actually be conservative. New home construction continues to be in such high demand, there is no softening of prices.

That leaves Dallas home prices at 5% above their pre-recession levels. And August’s year-over-year percentage price increase for Dallas was the highest in the history of Case Shiller. According to David Blitzer, Dallas and Denver both set new real estate highs, and we don’t even have mountains or marijuana!

But we may all have to start toking if my nagging fear takes hold: inflation! That’s what I fear when I Read about our steadily climbing values. Kneejerk reaction is yes, great, our home is worth more. I feel rich!

Then: DCAD will be catching on, upping the old property taxes next. Ugh. Then won’t it be nice to sell my home for a nice juicy profit? Sure, but then I’ll pay capital gains tax and have to buy another home that may be smaller and less desirable than my current home, for more money!

Here is the 20-city Case-Shiller report. As you can see, some cities are enjoying some healthy upward valuations, especially Detroit and of course, California cities.

Nationwide home prices rose by 12.8 percent from August 2012 levels, according to Case-Shiller. Ha ha ha: what happens in Vegas apparently stays UP in Vegas: but Vegas values are still down 47.1 percent from freaky-peak levels. San Francisco, no stunner, was up 25.4%. I read somewhere that the proliferation of millionaires in the Bay area was leading to a class of ridiculously wealthy individuals who spend life being shuttled from their employment campus (like Facebook) to palatial $20 plus million dollar homes in Palo Alto. San Francisco is quickly becoming a city where anyone earning less than $100K cannot afford to live.

Blitzer said that 13 of the 20 cities Case-Shiller tracks had double-digit increase in home prices this August. Like I said, how long will it be before we start hearing about the “i-word”: inflation?

 

David Woo The Dallas Morning News

David Woo The Dallas Morning News

I mean, dang! Dallas home prices are up 7.1% from last year overall. Is that not great to hear? Prices of pre-owned homes scooted up a whopping 7.1 percent in February from February 2012, a record increase. Like, the biggest increase since Case Shiller has been keeping records. Talk to the agents, they say North Texas home prices are up about 8 percent over the first three months of 2012, according to the MLS. And many sales are being made outside of the MLS.

But like Steve Brown points out, that is a bit lower than the magic some other cities did: Home price gains here are less than half what they are in places like Phoenix, San Francisco and even Detroit, at least according to Case-Shiller. Case Shiller tracks only home re-sales, not new homes, not condos or townhomes.

But that’s OK. Doesn’t bother me one bit. Not losing sleep. Phoenix real estate was in the pits, Detroit still is to a certain extent, and San Francisco is just an anomaly of a highly desirable location coupled with a whole lot of rich young people. Rich old people, too, and tech. My son just bought a home in Redwood City and it was seriously a battle. Paid more than asking.

By the way, this DMN photo by David Woo is of a house I saw Saturday in Hollywood Heights where my daughter just bought. It had a “coming soon” sign on it then — our market is so hot, we are selling off the “coming soon” signs in many neighborhoods!

Our market’s health is starting to get notice from others. When the whole country lost mega real estate value, we in Dallas lost only about 11 to 12%. We had our foreclosures,  but we were not drowning in them. You know I credit our state’s home equity lending regulations for that.  In some parts of the country? Folks lost 40, even 50% in price valuation drops.

Values in San Francisco don’t ever go down, even if there is an earthquake.

Here is how David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee, put it:

“In the last 10 years, when most of the country was going berserk with housing, you guys managed to keep your heads on your shoulders,” he said.

So no duh, we lost less, we will rebound at lower rates than the sink hole markets.

Let’s look back at the early and mid-2000s: home prices in many coastal and Southwestern cities exploded by double-digit annual increases. Personally, I never got why Phoenix was so hot. Phoenix is hot, but where’s the employment? Where are the jobs? Phoenix got hot because of California. It was seen as an affordable alternative once someone tripled their investment in San Diego. Make no mistake, some of our pace, too, is fueled by Californians moving to Dallas.

Since North Texas wasn’t a “bubble” market, prices here fell a lot less than in other U.S. cities when the poop hit the fan. Some no-so-brights even suggested that it was bad we missed the bubble — I disagree wholeheartedly.

Nationwide, home price values are still down about 30% from the hot tamale years of 2006, according to Case Shiller. At their worst, they were down 40%. Baby steps, OK? But this is why we need to thank Jesus (or Allah) for the hum in our market. Other markets are still not so hot. Basically, real estate is like weight gain. You know how bad it is for you to gain then lose? You are always running to the tailor, you feel bloated, etc.

“Dallas benefits in that you have less ups and downs,” said Blitzer.

Like a model’s bod.

Blitzer said that home price increases in the total Case-Shiller report are now at the highest level since May 2006. He says housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy. But a couple of things to watch:

– Price increases are being fueled by low housing inventories: “Slim Pickins” reports the Wall Street Journal in Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Detroit, Seattle and Washington, D.C. See any cities on this list with price escalation?

– Overall home ownership rates are down, according to the US Census Bureau: The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that the nation’s homeownership rate slipped to 65 percent in the three months that ended in March, a decline from 65.4 percent posted in both the first and last quarters of 2012. A blip, perhaps, but home ownership rates have been declining since 2007.

Let’s see what Washington is going to do with the home mortgage deduction!

-Home appraisals. Need I say more?

 

 

David Woo The Dallas Morning News

David Woo The Dallas Morning News

I mean, dang! Dallas home prices are up 7.1% from last year overall. Is that not great to hear? Prices of pre-owned homes scooted up a whopping 7.1 percent in February from February 2012, a record increase. Like, the biggest increase since Case Shiller has been keeping records. Talk to the agents, they say North Texas home prices are up about 8 percent over the first three months of 2012, according to the MLS. And many sales are being made outside of the MLS.

But like Steve Brown points out, that is a bit lower than the magic some other cities did: Home price gains here are less than half what they are in places like Phoenix, San Francisco and even Detroit, at least according to Case-Shiller. Case Shiller tracks only home re-sales, not new homes, not condos or townhomes.

But that’s OK. Doesn’t bother me one bit. Not losing sleep. Phoenix real estate was in the pits, Detroit still is to a certain extent, and San Francisco is just an anomaly of a highly desirable location coupled with a whole lot of rich young people. Rich old people, too, and tech. My son just bought a home in Redwood City and it was seriously a battle. Paid more than asking.

By the way, this DMN photo by David Woo is of a house I saw Saturday in Hollywood Heights where my daughter just bought. It had a “coming soon” sign on it then — our market is so hot, we are selling off the “coming soon” signs in many neighborhoods!

Our market’s health is starting to get notice from others. When the whole country lost mega real estate value, we in Dallas lost only about 11 to 12%. We had our foreclosures,  but we were not drowning in them. You know I credit our state’s home equity lending regulations for that.  In some parts of the country? Folks lost 40, even 50% in price valuation drops.

Values in San Francisco don’t ever go down, even if there is an earthquake.

Here is how David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee, put it:

“In the last 10 years, when most of the country was going berserk with housing, you guys managed to keep your heads on your shoulders,” he said.

So no duh, we lost less, we will rebound at lower rates than the sink hole markets.

Let’s look back at the early and mid-2000s: home prices in many coastal and Southwestern cities exploded by double-digit annual increases. Personally, I never got why Phoenix was so hot. Phoenix is hot, but where’s the employment? Where are the jobs? Phoenix got hot because of California. It was seen as an affordable alternative once someone tripled their investment in San Diego. Make no mistake, some of our pace, too, is fueled by Californians moving to Dallas.

Since North Texas wasn’t a “bubble” market, prices here fell a lot less than in other U.S. cities when the poop hit the fan. Some no-so-brights even suggested that it was bad we missed the bubble — I disagree wholeheartedly.

Nationwide, home price values are still down about 30% from the hot tamale years of 2006, according to Case Shiller. At their worst, they were down 40%. Baby steps, OK? But this is why we need to thank Jesus (or Allah) for the hum in our market. Other markets are still not so hot. Basically, real estate is like weight gain. You know how bad it is for you to gain then lose? You are always running to the tailor, you feel bloated, etc.

“Dallas benefits in that you have less ups and downs,” said Blitzer.

Like a model’s bod.

Blitzer said that home price increases in the total Case-Shiller report are now at the highest level since May 2006. He says housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy. But a couple of things to watch:

– Price increases are being fueled by low housing inventories: “Slim Pickins” reports the Wall Street Journal in Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Detroit, Seattle and Washington, D.C. See any cities on this list with price escalation?

– Overall home ownership rates are down, according to the US Census Bureau: The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that the nation’s homeownership rate slipped to 65 percent in the three months that ended in March, a decline from 65.4 percent posted in both the first and last quarters of 2012. A blip, perhaps, but home ownership rates have been declining since 2007.

Let’s see what Washington is going to do with the home mortgage deduction!

-Home appraisals. Need I say more?

 

 

I asked this yesterday: why is our market so darn tootin’ healthy when others are not? David Brown over at MetroStudy gave me some good answers.

First of all, Case-Shiller is so like yesterday’s news. This is one reason why I don’t like this index and warn y’all not to get your panties in a wad when it comes out. The release we get at the end of May is for Jan. Feb. March closings. Those were negotiated back in the fall of 2011. So that news, though good, is old news. The index is not really indicative of what we see happening in the spring/early summer or NOW! What we see happening is what we tell you on these here web pages: inventory is very low and homes are selling.

Atlanta? That’s an anomaly. David says builders who work in both Dallas and Atlanta say the place where Al Hill III moved continues to be very soft.

David says our market is a reflection of our economy, as most of us suspected. The Dallas economy has been right at the top in terms of job growth in the nation. New York slipped ahead of us, but Dallas and Houston have doubled our growth rate. We were late going into the downturn, early coming out. We never let our inventory out of line in a huge way. In isolated pockets, appreciation is popping up.

“The strength of our economy is what is helping us in this market,” says David, Director of the Dallas/Fort Worth Region at MetroStudy. “The key to demand is people have to have jobs to afford mortgage payments.”

I also found out why Houston and Austin/San Antonio were not on the list: Case-Shiller does not track Houston. But Huston, Austin and San Antonio are also healthy markets, David told me. For the first year since 2007 and 2008 builders are telling him they are ahead of their business plans.

Now every time we hear that rents are going up, we should probably do a little high school cheer. With rates still low and FHA loans available for as little as 3% down, those higher rents are pushing buyers to buy. In fact, David says a lot of tenants seeing their second year in a row of rent increases are saying, maybe we ought to get a 4% mortgage and buy a house. In some Class A units, those increases are exceeding 10%.