2023 Luxury Real Estate Market Outlook: North Texas Remains a Top Performer According to These Experts

You’ve undoubtedly heard a lot of grumbling about the real estate market lately. Yes, it’s a fact that mortgage rates have risen and housing inventory is tight, but we have to remember the Dallas luxury real estate market is a unicorn. All we have to do is look at some statistics from 2022. What you hear on the national news simply does not apply to our market.

Five of the top 10 largest-gaining counties in 2021 were in Texas. Collin, Fort Bend, Williamson, Denton, and Montgomery counties gained a combined 145,663 residents.

Texas was home to four of the top 10 largest-gaining metro areas.

The United States Census Bureau

Dallas is the fifth-fastest-growing city in the U.S.

During the peak months of the COVID-19 pandemic, no metro area’s population grew more than Dallas-Fort Worth.

Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise’s American Growth Project

The largest group of people from out-of-state taking up residence in Texas’s largest metropolitan area, Dallas-Ft. Worth came from California’s largest city. Between July 2019 and July 2022, 1.6% of new Dallas County residents relocating from within the United States arrived from Los Angeles County.

Placer Labs Inc. 2022

But what do the locals say? I reached out to some of our top luxury real estate agents to get their thoughts on the 2023 luxury real estate market.

Alex Perry, Allie Beth Allman & Associates

“Dallas has such tremendous growth that it’s not following the national trends. We still have migration coming. It will keep our market strong, but we have to be cognizant of national sentiment and the news that sales are down. The key for Dallas is to be knowledgeable in each pocket and be accurate locally.

I am very bullish for 2023 Dallas. Yes, 2022 was incredible, but 2023 will also be incredible. Buyers will be patient and wait for the right property. Sellers will be more in tune with where the market is now. Sellers will be more realistic after the crazy run we’ve experienced. In general, you will have waves based on news. Buyers may not feel comfortable when there is volatility. But when they see there is confidence that nothing is going to burst or crumble, the fact remains that they still need homes, and they know Dallas will continue to experience tremendous growth for the next 10 to 20 years.”

Christy Berry, Compass Real Estate

“Two thousand twenty-three will be the year the market goes numb, but aren’t we lucky we live in Dallas-Fort Worth? In the first six months of 2022, when mortgage rates huddled around 3 percent, things were prosperous for sellers, and then the market turned on a dime when the Federal Reserve started raising rates at an astonishing rate to its current 4.375 percent. This translates to mortgage rates hovering around 6 to 6.5 percent, the highest we have seen since 2008. Homeowners who have mortgages in the 3 percent and under range do not want to sell and buy another home with a mortgage at 6-plus percent.

I do expect to see the inventory increase beginning in 2023. Prices overall in the U.S. will drop by 10 percent, but D-FW will drift only 5 percent if they are priced correctly initially — not based on early 2022 pricing. As soon as we see six-plus months of inventory, we will turn to a buyer’s market, and thankfully multiple offers on every home are the bygone era. I do see a downward trend of mortgage rates at the end of 2023, and if we can drive down under the 6 percent rate, I expect the housing market to pick up.

Advice for all sellers: Be sure the price is right!”

Jerry Mooty, @Properties Christies International Real Estate

“While mortgage rates are currently affecting a certain area of the housing market, I think the luxury market in Texas should remain strong. We are seeing more inventory as of late, but not to the level that all buyers are being satisfied.

And, maybe, more importantly, I still believe the pricing of our properties is very attractive to out-of-state buyers.”

Ryan Streiff, Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate

“I think overall, 2023 will be a more challenging year nationally, so I feel fortunate to be in Dallas because we weather the storm best in the country. It’s reflected in the current market. There is a shortage of inventory of good houses in sought-after neighborhoods. Multiple parties are still interested. There is still a lot of off-market activity. In general, buyers are willing to be patient. You need an agent who will be honest whether you are a seller or a buyer.

The idea that people think there are deals to be had because the national market is trending down is not true in Dallas. Sellers understand now they are not holding all the cards. But now, enough time has passed that you need to jump on the opportunities. We have just seen the tip of the iceberg, is what I hear, and if that is true, we will look back and see that what’s available now is a deal. You have the green light to buy now. Be patient but once you see it, be ready.

Everyone needs to go back to the basics on the listing side. Sellers need honest pricing guidance, and they need to market properly. The market is not moving briskly enough for someone to say, ‘This is what I’ll pay you.’ People will set a house aside and wait if it’s not turnkey.

Spend the time now to do the things to the house to make it sell. Invest a dollar to get three dollars in return, especially with recent freeze damage. Get in line now if you are ready to get bids. And remember, 70 percent of Americans have a 4 percent or less mortgage, so many people will slow down but remodels are up. It’s going to be another wave of remodels.

Long term, the city is headed up.”