Real Estate Story
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At $230,000, the house at 9348 Highedge Cir. in Dallas costs about the average for a home here.

With home prices soaring in Dallas, many buyers wonder what it would cost to live in other cities. Turns out, inventory is tight around the nation, not just in North Texas.

In Dallas, the average home price is $230,500, a year-over-year increase of 9.76 percent, according to HSH.com. The means you need an annual salary of $53,824 to buy here—with a 20 percent down payment—and not end up house poor (with a mortgage rate average of 3.61 percent in Dallas, that’s a monthly payment of $1,256). With 10 percent down instead of 20, the required salary increases from $53,824 to $61,581.

What does it cost in 26 other cities around the country? Jump to find out!

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Screen shot 2015-04-14 at 2.39.13 PM

Here we go again: CoreLogic’s latest HPI report is telling us what our boots-on-the-ground Realtor sources already know. Fewer homes on the market has meant higher-than-average home price appreciation ahead of one of the most brisk times of year for Dallas-area Realtors. The spring selling season has been filled with cold calls and pleas from Realtors for homeowners who are on the fence about selling to just get off their duffs and do it.

But, while the limited inventory may be a pain in the posterior for those searching for the right home, it has had one side-effect worth mentioning: Market stabilization.

“Since the second half of 2014, the dwindling supply of affordable inventory has led to stabilization in home price growth, with a particular uptick in low-end home price growth over the last few months,” said CoreLogic chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft. “From February 2014 to February 2015, low-end home prices increased by 9.3 percent compared to 4.8 percent for high-end home prices, a gap that is three times the historical difference.”

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Case Shiller December 2014

 

Case-Shiller’s recent Dec.2014 report shows home prices inching even further skyward, with an increase of 7.5 percent year-over-year, topping the national average of 4.5 percent by a healthy margin. Shrinking inventory is to blame, but one must wonder if supply will ever catch up at this rate.

“As long as we have a tight sellers’ market, it’s going to be in that area,” said Dr. James Gaines, an economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University in this story by Steve Brown. “The good news is it’s not 12 or 15 percent.

“We can live with this for a while.”

But really, can we?

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Photo courtesy Brian Dooley via Creative Commons

Photo courtesy Brian Dooley via Creative Commons

Strong economic factors, job gains, and population increases have experts predicting strong growth in North Texas home prices in 2015, and a 35 percent increase in home prices over the next three years in the Dallas-Plano-Irving areas.

Local Market Monitor, Inc. released its December 2014 local market reports for North Texas, looking at factors like jobs, migration, housing permits, local market risk premium, and average home prices. Based on those analytics, they say home prices will likely grow 11 percent in the eastern counties of North Texas and 8 percent in the western counties over the next 12 months. Nationally, prices are forecast to increase by 6.3 percent.

They’ve extended their forecast two and three years, as well. In the eastern DFW counties, home values are predicted to increase 11 percent in 2016 and 10 percent in 2017.

In the western counties, home values are expected to increase 8 percent in both 2016 and 2017. The report predicts home prices to increase 25 percent over the next three years, noting that market is currently underpriced 17 percent relative to income.

County level forecast for Home Values

These reports echo the sentiments of local realtors and real estate experts, who have been crowing about strong North Texas job growth, more buyer and seller confidence, continued low interest rates, and investor demand. Jump to read more!

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Home For Sale Sign Dallas

Let’s just say that my eyes widened a little without the help of coffee when I read this story from Steve Brown. According to Fitch Ratings, Texas home prices are way overvalued, by 11 percent they say, and there could be a reckoning coming thanks to falling oil prices.

The financial analysts at Fitch are concerned about the year-over-year growth in Houston, Austin, and Dallas, which posted home price increases of 20 percent since 2011.

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Home prices in North Texas are up year-over-year, though sales volume is sluggish.

Home prices in North Texas are up year-over-year, though sales volume is sluggish.

Word comes that for the month of August, Dallas-area home prices posted a fantastic little bump at 7.3 percent year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index report shows enough of an increase in prices to warrant continued optimism among sellers in our burg, where a shortage of inventory and slow-to-catch-up new home builders has made the market for homes in most price ranges very competitive.

That’s one of the highest increases nationwide, and over the national average, too, which is 5.5 percent. According to the report, the median price of a pre-owned, single-family home in North Texas in August is up 7 percent from the same period last year.

But according to a recent report from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, total sales are down 2 percent over a year ago. Of course, as sales volume decreases, it’s only natural for the competition over those homes on the market to heat up.

I guess, though, we’re in a fortuitous spot considering that our price increase puts us at 12 percent higher than pre-recession levels, and with inventory as short as it is and job growth still on pace for expansion, there’s no bubble in sight.

What’s your outlook on home prices and inventory?

Home For Sale Sign Dallas

With Texas and Dallas clocking in a small uptick in inventory, everyone’s wondering if we the market is poised to stabilize soon and if our time of scarcity and rising prices is over.

According to the latest report from CoreLogic, not so much.

“Home prices are continuing to rise fueled by ongoing tight supply, low rates, and aggressive investor buying on the East and West Coast,” said President and CEO of CoreLogic Anand Nallathambi. “The expected surge in the number of homes for sale has not materialized to date as many homeowners are staying put and waiting for better economic times and higher prices in the future.”

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Inventory Chart TAR q1 2014

Slow growing inventory is choking sales growth and driving prices up in the Dallas real estate market, with only 2.4 months of inventory in the Dallas market — an increase of 0.2 months from last quarter — according to the latest quarterly report from the Texas Association of Realtors and the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

As a result the median home price in Dallas is up 9.81 percent from the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 6.81 percent from the same time a year ago and the second consecutive quarter our city has seen an increase in home prices. Statewide, inventory grew for the first time in three years, up to 3.6 in the second quarter of 2014 from an all-time low of 3.4 months in the first quarter of this year. Still, inventory is tighter than a pair of skinny jeans after Thanksgiving and continues to pose problems for our market.

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