recession

From staff reports

It’s no secret that housing took a huge hit during the last recession. But during this long period of economic expansion that followed — a record 121 months as of July 2019 — how did the market fare?

A special CoreLogic report, “The Role of Housing in the Longest Economic Expansion,” takes a look at the years from 2008 (the start of the Recession) to July 2019. 

“June 2009 marked the trough of the Great Recession, after which gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production resumed growth,” the report said. “Since then, the economy has continued to grow. With housing comprising approximately 15 percent of GDP since 2010, the real estate market is an important indicator of economic health.”

How did that factor in Texas? The report refers to the CoreLogic Home Price Index, which uses public records, real estate databases and other data, as well as more than 40 years of repeat sales transactions to analyze home price trends.  (more…)

recessionFrom staff reports

About two-thirds of homeowners who are still living the same house they were in 10 years ago when the Great Recession began have reported that their home is worth more now, a new Bankrate survey revealed.

The survey found that 23 percent said the value is about the same as it was in December 2007, while 11 percent said their home is worth less now.

Forty-six percent of homeowners said their property lost value from December 2007 to June 2009. More than 20 percent who reported that their home lost value during the Great Recession said the home never regained its pre-recession worth. One in 10 whose home value depreciated said they don’t want to own a home now, and 23 percent said they now have a more affordable home and/or mortgage. (more…)

recessionThe two Metropolitan Statistical Areas that encompass Dallas-Fort Worth ranked in a recent list of top 10 metros that have recovered the most from the Great Recession, HSH.com said.

But that recovery isn’t all that usual — 27 major cities still haven’t seen home prices recover peak values they were posting pre-recession. But that number is dropping, HSH said, and so far, 73 U.S. home markets seen complete recovery.

Dallas-Plano-Irving found itself in fourth place, with home prices 68.51 percent above peak). Fort Worth-Arlington was fifth, at 59.85 percent above peak.

Three more Texas metros found themselves on the recession recovery list as well: Austin-Round Rock at No. 2 (72.55 percent), Houston-The Woodlands- Sugarland at No. 6 (57.05 percent), and San Antonio-New Braunfels at No. 8 (44.47 percent).

“Although the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro still holds the top slot, Texas markets dominate the most recovered group, holding five of the 10 slots,” the company said.

Additionally, El Paso made the company’s “nearly recovered” list, signaling that its current values are only one or two percent below previous peaks, and that the city is likely close to making that “fully recovered” list, possibly even by the next quarter.

The rankings are determined by using the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index to determine which markets have recovered fully and which ones are still lagging.

recessionDallas was among nine metros where the bulk of home values have hit pre-recession levels, affordability is hampering one age group in particular from purchasing homes, Zillow is making yet another bid toward world domination, and mortgage rates are ticking up — all this and more in this week’s real estate news roundup. (more…)

There’s been a pretty steady drumbeat from leading economists — a recession is coming. In fact, at this month’s National Association of Real Estate Editors journalism convention, all three economists on a dais one Friday found themselves agreeing on two things: a recession is coming, and real estate won’t be the impetus this time.

Frank Nothaft (Corelogic chief economist), Danielle Hale (economist with Realtor.com), George Ratiu (research director with the National Association of Realtors), and Aaron Terrazas (senior economist with Zillow) all agreed that other factors — like tariffs, rising mortgage rates, and even a correction in the stock market — will likely be the cause or causes for a recession. (more…)

The only hope many younger generations have to accumulate wealth is to stay cozy with grandma. Since 1995 (over a decade before the Recession), the median wealth of 25-34 year olds declined 39 percent, while 35-44 year olds declined 27 percent, and 45-54 year olds’ wealth declined 15 percent. There have been potent gains reported from 2013 to 2016, but obviously not nearly enough to offset long-term losses. The main culprits are excessive student loan debt and the decline in homeownership rates. You might say the growth of student loan debt has heavily contributed to lowered homeownership rates. To me, the chart below demonstrates why down payments are harder for younger buyers to save up for.

(more…)

Single Family Resale Median Prices

News media loves the biggest car crash, so during the Recession, Las Vegas and a few other cities were ever-present in the headlines of bad real estate news.  The table above illustrates how deep the crater went and how far it’s returned to pre-Recession levels. For homebuyers in the market, you may have missed out on the gains from the depths of the market, but there is still room for building equity.

I say that because, as of March 2018, The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reports just over a month’s supply of homes on the market with roughly 30 percent fewer homes listed this past year (but 6.4 percent more condos).  Couple that with a 15.7 percent year-over-year increase in single-family home sales prices and a 30.1 percent increase in condo prices. That translates into a median single-family home selling price of $280,000 and $160,000 for condos and townhomes.  That compares with a historical average of 5 percent annual appreciation.  All this activity and you’d think you were in Dallas.

Head over to SecondShelters.com for more on the Las Vegas real estate heatwave.

recession

Minorities were hit the hardest by the housing crisis, and show lower levels of homeownership today.

The economic recession of 2007-2009 affected most Americans in depressingly real and tangible ways. Two groups of Americans are disproportionately affected, still, by the downturn.

A new study by Apartment List shows that the economic downturn had the greatest impact on homeownership among minorities and young Americans aged 18-45, particularly those in the 35-44 age range.

Analysts at Apartment List, an apartment location website, looked at Census data and reported U.S. homeownership rates in general have fallen steadily, recently dropping to their lowest levels since 1965.

In Dallas, the homeownership rate fell from 60.9 percent to 58.7 percent from 2007-2016. The drops were biggest among African Americans, where homeownership fell by 6.1 percent.

“African Americans were highly affected [by the recession], said said Andrew Woo, director of data science and growth at Apartment List. “In Dallas, it is a large drop [in homeownership], larger than the nation average, which is 5.3 percent. What we notice is that it’s very much tied to employment and socioeconomic trends.”

During this same time period, rents increased by 4.2 percent in Dallas, even as owner costs (mortgage, maintenance, etc.) fell by 11.8 percent. So the people least able to afford it were paying more (in rent), less able to save toward a down payment, and therefore less likely to buy a home.

(more…)