Preston Center’s San Francisco Problems: How a City’s Demographics Influence Development

I believe it’s called serendipity.  On May 5, Dallas Morning News writer Robert Wilonsky expressed his thoughts on the slowness of the Preston Center Task Force’s process, its wish-washy-ness, and the overall use of butter knives versus machetes in tackling the issues.  The next day I saw a report put out by the (San Francisco) Bay Area Council that was based on a poll of residents conducted in early 2016.  There were interesting parallels.

Both areas are in need of added residential units. In the Bay Area it’s because housing is so expensive due to the tech sector pricing everyone not a VP or an IPO millionaire out of the market.  In Dallas, our lack of housing is fueled by population growth that’s projected to continue for quite some time. Overriding it all are the multitude of cities feeling the squeeze because construction freezes during the recession have left cities tens of thousands of homes short.

Dallas has it easier than Silicon Valley, as we’ve got more open physical space compared to the Bay Area’s finger of land bracketed by water and mountains. How bad is California?  The report asks about support for better public transit for commuters between Sacramento and the Valley.  Distance-wise, that would be like Dallas seeking commuter ties to Waco.  When I lived in the Valley, I quipped that they should bulldoze the mountains and fill in San Francisco Bay for housing … and that was 18 years ago!

Returning to this year, when residents in the San Francisco area were asked whether it was more difficult to find housing this year versus last year, the results are unsurprising.  What I’d like to see is household income mapped against difficulty finding housing.  Something tells me that the higher the income, the less housing is a problem (like many things). How many home buyers would say that (affordable) housing in the Metroplex is more difficult to find this year than the last?

However, just like in the Preston Center area, the above chart shows that residents waffle on where. Yes we want more housing to ease commuting time, but NIMBY and really NIMBY if it’s multi-family.  Even though Dallas is in its infancy of building dense housing near DART, I suspect the results would be similar. It’s such a familiar trope that development is fine … over there.

Certainly the Transwestern/Laurel apartment war proved increased density behind the Pink Wall will not come without conflict.  The petition pens are already blazing to stop development on Mark Cuban’s and St. Michael’s properties.

Those most apt to support new construction in their neighborhood are younger, beginning a linear progression of disapproval by age. Why?  Older people tend to be homeowners who got on the property ladder when prices were drastically cheaper and that equity makes them less impacted by current costs. They’re also more likely to be living in established and wealthier neighborhoods and view development as personally harming their quality of life and possibly property values. More than a whiff of the Preston Center area, no?

By contrast, the younger you are the less equity and savings you tend have. You’re living in lower income areas or requiring multiple incomes to afford housing (roommates).  You’re more likely to support additional local housing in the hopes it will help you.  However this isn’t the whole story.

By income level, there is just a 4 percent delta between the “poorest” and the wealthiest group in supporting new construction in their neighborhoods.  I put “poor” in quotations to call attention to what the Bay Area considers “poor” when discussing housing – those earning under $75,000 a year.  When Dallas thinks of the lowest rung of the property ladder, what’s our number?

If youth is thought of as having a lower income, then there wouldn’t be as close a sentiment by income.  Perhaps the younger you are, the more able you are to absorb change for a greater good. You know, all that altruism and empathy that seems to dry as we age.  I wonder if that sentiment is shared by younger generations of Texans?

Approached from a slightly different direction, the same trends can be seen.  If you are a homeowner over 50 years old, you’re twice as likely to be spending under 20 percent of your income on housing as someone under 50 years old.  Again, this reinforces the idea that older people have higher salaries and have been on the property ladder longer, so are less affected by higher prices.  This isn’t shocking, each group’s opinion is informed by their personal gain.

What is telling here is that renters are getting the shaft with just 14-15 percent spending under 20 percent of their incomes on housing. At the other end of the spectrum, Renters spending over 60 percent of their salary on housing ranges from 12-14 percent versus 3-6 percent of homeowners – 2.3-4 times as many.

In the Bay Area, renting is a losing proposition that keeps tenants from saving for a down payment.  The same can likely be said of apartment prices in Dallas measured against our generally lower salaries.  The apartment I rented before buying in 2012 has jumped $600 a month over the past three years! That’s an increase of one-third.

Why should we care about development and the cost of living in Dallas? After all, we’re not nearly as spendy as the bay area. Because if we don’t get these issues under control, residents will move or not come at all.  Think of this study as a crystal ball.

The Metroplex has been good at snapping up corporate headquarters in recent years – more than a few from California.  If Preston Center and Dallas as a whole can’t figure out how to make the math of additional housing work, they may find a third of its residents want to move too.

Even though these graphics are from a survey conducted 1,800 miles away, they perfectly capture why the Preston Center Task Force is using butter knives instead of machetes.  Their constituencies are older and wealthier making them less likely to support machete-like change in their own backyard – literally and figuratively.

It seems that there’s so much “bread” surrounding Preston Center, all they want is butter.

 

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